"The
objective of most Delphi applications
is the reliable and creative exploration
of ideas or the production of
suitable information for decision-making.
The Delphi Method is based on
a structured process for collecting
and distilling knowledge from
a group of experts by means of
a series of questionnaires interspersed
with controlled opinion feed back."
Gazing into the Oracle: The Delphi
Method and its Applications to
Social Policy and Public Health,
Michael Adler and Erio Ziglio
(editors)
What is a Delphi Process?
The
Delphi technique was developed in the 1950s
by Rand Corporation as a valuable tool for
modeling future scenarios. Originally used
for military purposes, it was quickly adapted
to other fields of research and is now used
all over the world. The Delphi process has
been employed with great success for new product
development, sales and marketing research,
evaluation of management methods, in demographic
predictions, and in financial arenas. By focusing
on eveloving trends rather than existing conditions,
it is particularly effective in reviewing
the complex subjects organizations are currently
grappling with as they interact with the future.
The
three qualifications for a traditional Delphi
are: anonymity, iteration with controlled
feedback, and statistical response (both qualitative
and quantitative). Each round poses a series
of Likert questions to the group; the answers
are then tabulated, and those results are
used to form the basis for the next round.
Through several iterations, this process synthesizes
the responses, resulting finally in a consensus
that reflects the participants' combined intuition
and savvy, as well as expert knowledge.
"Delphi
may be characterized as a method
for structuring a group communication
process so that the process is
effective in allowing a group
of individuals, as a whole, to
deal with a complex problem."
The
Delphi Method Techniques and Applications,
Harold A. Linstone and Murray
Turoff (editors)
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